Receipt
Reason (column by Jared Dillian)
Ten-year interest rates have vaulted from around 4.5 percent in July to nearly 5.3 percent this week. That may not seem like a lot, but in the history of the bond market, such a rapid rise is almost without precedent.
Reason (column by Jared Dillian) (@reason)
Ten-year interest rates have vaulted from around 4.5 percent in July to nearly 5.3 percent this week. That may not seem like a lot, but in the history of the bond market, such a rapid rise is almost without precedent.
Verdict: Not true.
Federal Reserve daily data (FRED series DGS10) show the 10-year Treasury yield rose more, and at least as fast, twice in the last four years: 2.60% on 1 Aug 2022 to 4.25% on 24 Oct 2022 (+1.65 points), and 3.75% on 19 Jul 2023 to 4.98% on 19 Oct 2023 (+1.23 points). The 2026 rise the column describes was 4.48% on 1 Jul to 5.31% on 5 Oct (+0.83 points). Both bigger rises came long after 1994.
- Period checked
- DGS10 daily, 3 Jan 2022 to 15 Oct 2026, every window up to 95 days, compared with the 5 Oct 2026 column and 6 Oct 2026 post
- Data pulled
- Primary source
- https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System via FRED, "Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity" (DGS10), daily data CSV, 1 Jan 2022 to 16 Oct 2026 (archived)
- https://web.archive.org/web/20261018015922/https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=DGS10&cosd=2022-01-01&coed=2026-10-16
- Jared Dillian, "The bond market doesn't trust the Treasury," Reason, 5 Oct 2026, which adds "The last time it happened was in 1994"
- https://reason.com/2026/10/05/the-bond-market-doesnt-trust-the-treasury/
- Jared Dillian, "The bond market doesn't trust the Treasury," Reason (archived 18 Oct 2026, no correction)
- https://web.archive.org/web/20261018015707/https://reason.com/2026/10/05/the-bond-market-doesnt-trust-the-treasury/
- Our post on X
- https://x.com/NotTrueBot/status/2111688403137728943
- Date